Research Article | | Peer-Reviewed

Estimation of One to Two Consecutive Days Maximum Annual Rainfall Using Probability Distributions: The Case of Bedele Town, Oromia, Ethiopia

Received: 27 November 2023     Accepted: 12 December 2023     Published: 22 December 2023
Views:       Downloads:
Abstract

Probability distribution and frequency analysis of rainfall data enable future extreme events. Rainfall is an infrequent and important hydrological parameter on the earth. When designing irrigation and other hydraulic systems, assessing the size of an extreme rainfall event for a specific probability level is extremely important. For the present study daily rainfall data from 2000-2022 for Bedele Town is collected from the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI) and analyzed for One to two consecutive days maximum annual rainfall using various three commonly used probability distribution viz., Gumbel’s, Log-normal, and Log-pearson type III distributions to determine the best-fit probability distribution. The expected values were compared with the observed values using the goodness of fit and were determined by the chi-square (χ2) test. The chi-square values of 1day maximum annual rainfall for Gumbel’s, Log-normal, and Log-pearson type-III distributions were 3.276, 1.548, and 3.777 respectively which shows that the Log-normal distribution was the best-fit probability distribution to forecast annual 1day maximum rainfall for different return periods. Also, predictable One day maximum annual Rainfall using Log-normal distribution for a return period of 2, 10, 25, 50,100, and 200 were 63.1mm, 85.1mm, 95.5mm, 102.3mm, 107.2mm, and 120.2mm respectively. The chi-square values of 2days maximum annual rainfall for Gumbel’s, Log-normal, and Log-pearson type-III distributions were 3.023, 12.171, and 10.395 respectively which shows that the Gumbel’s distribution was the best-fit probability distribution to forecast 2days maximum annual rainfall for different return periods. Also, predictable 2Days maximum annual Rainfall using Gumbel’s distribution for return periods of 2, 10, 25, 50,100, and 200 were 87.8mm, 112.8mm, 125.3mm, 134.7mm, 143.9mm and 153.2mm respectively. The comparisons between the observed and predicted maximum value of annual rainfall clearly show that the developed model can be efficiently used for the prediction of rainfall. The results of this study would be useful for agricultural scientists, decision-makers, policy planners, and researchers for agricultural development and construction of small soil and water conservation structures, irrigation, and drainage systems in Bedele Town, Ethiopia.

Published in Engineering Science (Volume 8, Issue 2)
DOI 10.11648/j.es.20230802.12
Page(s) 23-29
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2023. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Bedele Town, Chi-square, Consecutive, Rainfall, Probability Distributions

References
[1] A. R. Mishra, W. L. Engineering, U. Pradesh, W. L. Engineering, And U. Pradesh, “Rainfall Of One To Seven Consecutive Days For,” Vol. 6, No. 1, Pp. 47–54, 2015.
[2] R. M. Sabarish, R. Narasimhan, A. R. Chandhru, C. R. Suribabu, J. Sudharsan, And S. Nithiyanantham, “Probability Analysis For Consecutive-Day Maximum Rainfall For Tiruchirapalli City (South India, Asia),” Appl. Water Sci., Vol. 7, No. 2, Pp. 1033–1042, 2017, Doi: 10.1007/S13201-015-0307-X.
[3] M. Manikandan, G. Thiyagarajan, And G. Vijayakumar, “Probability Analysis For Estimating Annual One Day Maximum Rainfall In Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,” Madras Agric. J., Vol. 98, No. 1–3, Pp. 69–73, 2011.
[4] S. R. Bhakar, A. K. Bansal, And N. Chhajed, “Frequency Analysis Of Consecutive Days Maximum Rainfall At Banswara, Rajasthan, India,” J. Inst. Eng. Agric. Eng. Div., Vol. 1, No. 3, Pp. 14–16, 2006.
[5] B. Singh, D. Rajpurohit, A. Vasishth, And J. Singh, “Probability Analysis For Estimation Of Annual One Day Maximum Rainfall Of Jhalarapatan Area Of Rajasthan, India,” Plant Arch., Vol. 12, No. 2, Pp. 1093–1100, 2012.
[6] A. Kandpal, S. Kanwal, And A. Gosain, “Estimation Of Consecutive Days Maximum Rainfall Using Different Probability Distributions And Their Comparsion,” Pp. 100–106, 2015.
[7] P. M. Hodlur And R. V Raikar, “Probability Distribution And Frequency Analysis Of Consecutive Days Maximum Rainfall At Sambra (Belagavi), Karnataka, India,” 2021, [Online]. Available: Https://Www.Researchgate.Net/Publication/350638049
[8] V. Te Chow, “Frequence Analysis Of Hydrologic Data With Special Application To Rainfall Intensities,” 2007.
[9] G. Mosisa, “Prediction Of Consecutive Days Maximum Rainfall Using Frequency Analysis For Nekemte Town, Oromia, Ethiopia,” Vol. 12, No. 1, Pp. 12–22, 2023, Doi: 110.11648/J.Wros.20231201.12.
[10] N. Kumar Sharma And A. Kumar, “Frequency Analysis Of Rainfall Data Of Dharamshala Region,” Matec Web Conf., Vol. 57, 2016, Doi: 10.1051/Matecconf/20165703013.
[11] U. Momin, P. S. Kulkarni, S. M. Horaginamani, And M. Ravichandran, “Consecutive Days Maximum Rainfall Analysis By Gumbel ’ S Extreme Value Distributions For Southern Telangana,” Vol. 1, No. 7, Pp. 976–997, 2011.
[12] S. Bhakar Et Al., “Probability Analysis Of Rainfall At Kota Probablity Analysis Of Rainfall At Kota,” No. December, 2014, [Online]. Available: Https://Www.Researchgate.Net/Publication/265060521
[13] A. Patel And R. K. Verma, “Probability Analysis For Prediction Of Annual Maximum Rainfall Of One To Five Consecutive Months For Sultanpur Region,” Vol. 15, No. 1, 2019, Doi: 10.15740/Has/Ijas/15.1/15-24.
[14] A. Shering And A. Kumar, “Comparative Study Of Prediction Of Annual Maximum Rainfall By Using Three Different Methods In Bijnor District (U. P.),” Vol. 10, No. 9, Pp. 33–41, 2017, Doi: 10.9790/2380-1009013341.
[15] P. K. Bora, V. Ram, A. K. Singh, R. Singh, And S. M. Feroze, “Probable Annual Maximum Rainfall For Barapani, Meghalaya,” Vol. 3, No. 1, Pp. 16–18, 2012.
[16] M. Barkotulla, … M. R.-J. Of D., And Undefined 2009, “Characterization And Frequency Analysis Of Consecutive Days Maximum Rainfall At Boalia, Rajshahi And Bangladesh,” Academicjournals.Org, Vol. 1, No. 5, Pp. 121–126, 2009, [Online]. Available: Https://Academicjournals.Org/Journal/Jdae/Article-Full-Text-Pdf/Ac6bd373876
[17] L. Kaur, Anvesha, M. Kumar, S. L. Verma, And P. Kumar, “Annual Maximum Rainfall Prediction Using Frequency Analysis For Roorkee, Uttarakhand, India,” Mausam, Vol. 72, No. 2, Pp. 359–372, 2021, Doi: 10.54302/Mausam.V72i2.623.
[18] V. Te Chow, Applied Hydrology Under Chapter 11 Hydrologic Statistics. 1987.
[19] M. Gundalia, “Monthly And Annual Maximum Rainfall Prediction Using Best Fitted Probability Distributions In Junagadh Region (Gujarat- India),” 2022.
[20] K. Subramanya, “Engineering Hydrology. Chapter 7, Mcgraw Hill Book Co. Inc., New Delhi,” 2009.
[21] N. N. Daba, “Estimation Of Probable Maximum Precipitation And Isohyete Map In Didessa Sub Basin, Abbay Basin Ethiopia,” 2021.
[22] V. T. Chow, “‘General Formula For Hydrological Frequency Analysis’, Trans. Am. Geographic Union, 32, 231-237.,” 1951.
[23] G. Mosisa, K. Abebe, And Y. Wakena, “Hydrological Analysis And Peak Runoff Determination In Basaka River Sub-Watershed, Abbay Basin, Ethiopia Using Gumbel ’ S And Scs Methods Respectively,” Vol. 12, No. 2, Pp. 23–30, 2023, Doi: 10.11648/J.Wros.20231202.11.
Cite This Article
  • APA Style

    Mosisa, G. (2023). Estimation of One to Two Consecutive Days Maximum Annual Rainfall Using Probability Distributions: The Case of Bedele Town, Oromia, Ethiopia. Engineering Science, 8(2), 23-29. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.es.20230802.12

    Copy | Download

    ACS Style

    Mosisa, G. Estimation of One to Two Consecutive Days Maximum Annual Rainfall Using Probability Distributions: The Case of Bedele Town, Oromia, Ethiopia. Eng. Sci. 2023, 8(2), 23-29. doi: 10.11648/j.es.20230802.12

    Copy | Download

    AMA Style

    Mosisa G. Estimation of One to Two Consecutive Days Maximum Annual Rainfall Using Probability Distributions: The Case of Bedele Town, Oromia, Ethiopia. Eng Sci. 2023;8(2):23-29. doi: 10.11648/j.es.20230802.12

    Copy | Download

  • @article{10.11648/j.es.20230802.12,
      author = {Gemechu Mosisa},
      title = {Estimation of One to Two Consecutive Days Maximum Annual Rainfall Using Probability Distributions: The Case of Bedele Town, Oromia, Ethiopia},
      journal = {Engineering Science},
      volume = {8},
      number = {2},
      pages = {23-29},
      doi = {10.11648/j.es.20230802.12},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.es.20230802.12},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.es.20230802.12},
      abstract = {Probability distribution and frequency analysis of rainfall data enable future extreme events. Rainfall is an infrequent and important hydrological parameter on the earth. When designing irrigation and other hydraulic systems, assessing the size of an extreme rainfall event for a specific probability level is extremely important. For the present study daily rainfall data from 2000-2022 for Bedele Town is collected from the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI) and analyzed for One to two consecutive days maximum annual rainfall using various three commonly used probability distribution viz., Gumbel’s, Log-normal, and Log-pearson type III distributions to determine the best-fit probability distribution. The expected values were compared with the observed values using the goodness of fit and were determined by the chi-square (χ2) test. The chi-square values of 1day maximum annual rainfall for Gumbel’s, Log-normal, and Log-pearson type-III distributions were 3.276, 1.548, and 3.777 respectively which shows that the Log-normal distribution was the best-fit probability distribution to forecast annual 1day maximum rainfall for different return periods. Also, predictable One day maximum annual Rainfall using Log-normal distribution for a return period of 2, 10, 25, 50,100, and 200 were 63.1mm, 85.1mm, 95.5mm, 102.3mm, 107.2mm, and 120.2mm respectively. The chi-square values of 2days maximum annual rainfall for Gumbel’s, Log-normal, and Log-pearson type-III distributions were 3.023, 12.171, and 10.395 respectively which shows that the Gumbel’s distribution was the best-fit probability distribution to forecast 2days maximum annual rainfall for different return periods. Also, predictable 2Days maximum annual Rainfall using Gumbel’s distribution for return periods of 2, 10, 25, 50,100, and 200 were 87.8mm, 112.8mm, 125.3mm, 134.7mm, 143.9mm and 153.2mm respectively. The comparisons between the observed and predicted maximum value of annual rainfall clearly show that the developed model can be efficiently used for the prediction of rainfall. The results of this study would be useful for agricultural scientists, decision-makers, policy planners, and researchers for agricultural development and construction of small soil and water conservation structures, irrigation, and drainage systems in Bedele Town, Ethiopia.
    },
     year = {2023}
    }
    

    Copy | Download

  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Estimation of One to Two Consecutive Days Maximum Annual Rainfall Using Probability Distributions: The Case of Bedele Town, Oromia, Ethiopia
    AU  - Gemechu Mosisa
    Y1  - 2023/12/22
    PY  - 2023
    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.es.20230802.12
    DO  - 10.11648/j.es.20230802.12
    T2  - Engineering Science
    JF  - Engineering Science
    JO  - Engineering Science
    SP  - 23
    EP  - 29
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2578-9279
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.es.20230802.12
    AB  - Probability distribution and frequency analysis of rainfall data enable future extreme events. Rainfall is an infrequent and important hydrological parameter on the earth. When designing irrigation and other hydraulic systems, assessing the size of an extreme rainfall event for a specific probability level is extremely important. For the present study daily rainfall data from 2000-2022 for Bedele Town is collected from the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI) and analyzed for One to two consecutive days maximum annual rainfall using various three commonly used probability distribution viz., Gumbel’s, Log-normal, and Log-pearson type III distributions to determine the best-fit probability distribution. The expected values were compared with the observed values using the goodness of fit and were determined by the chi-square (χ2) test. The chi-square values of 1day maximum annual rainfall for Gumbel’s, Log-normal, and Log-pearson type-III distributions were 3.276, 1.548, and 3.777 respectively which shows that the Log-normal distribution was the best-fit probability distribution to forecast annual 1day maximum rainfall for different return periods. Also, predictable One day maximum annual Rainfall using Log-normal distribution for a return period of 2, 10, 25, 50,100, and 200 were 63.1mm, 85.1mm, 95.5mm, 102.3mm, 107.2mm, and 120.2mm respectively. The chi-square values of 2days maximum annual rainfall for Gumbel’s, Log-normal, and Log-pearson type-III distributions were 3.023, 12.171, and 10.395 respectively which shows that the Gumbel’s distribution was the best-fit probability distribution to forecast 2days maximum annual rainfall for different return periods. Also, predictable 2Days maximum annual Rainfall using Gumbel’s distribution for return periods of 2, 10, 25, 50,100, and 200 were 87.8mm, 112.8mm, 125.3mm, 134.7mm, 143.9mm and 153.2mm respectively. The comparisons between the observed and predicted maximum value of annual rainfall clearly show that the developed model can be efficiently used for the prediction of rainfall. The results of this study would be useful for agricultural scientists, decision-makers, policy planners, and researchers for agricultural development and construction of small soil and water conservation structures, irrigation, and drainage systems in Bedele Town, Ethiopia.
    
    VL  - 8
    IS  - 2
    ER  - 

    Copy | Download

Author Information
  • Department of Hydraulic & Water Resource Engineering, College of Engineering and Technology, Wallaga University, Nekemte, Ethiopia

  • Sections